Author: Wayne Loke

  • Vibe Coding: A Macro Early-Warning Dashboard

    Four times a year, when Stats NZ releases the CPI, I open an Excel spreadsheet and type the number in by hand. Unemployment when it comes out, the exchange rate, dairy prices, GDP, US inflation; each one found on a different website, copied across, checked against the previous quarter. I have kept this spreadsheet going for some time now, and let’s face it, an early-warning panel that only warns when I remember to feed it is not much of an early-warning panel.

    Some context on why I bother. Years ago, while I was still at ABN AMRO, I took the Certified Financial Planner course and passed the certification, never to practice it in public; I learned it to manage my own money, and the knowledge served me well. Now, as an early retiree, that decision pays for itself, because it pays to manage your own portfolio well rather than paying someone else to do it, and I am running mine through decumulation, where the macro regime matters more than any single stock pick, because the regime decides how much risk I should be carrying at all. What I watch for are the three conditions that hurt a retiree’s portfolio in different ways: inflation, deflation, and stagflation. Over the years of manual tracking I settled on six indicators with hard triggers: NZ unemployment above 5.5%, US Core PCE inflation above 3.5%, the NZD/USD below 0.58, a 15% year-on-year drop in the Global Dairy Trade index, NZ CPI above 4%, and a negative quarter of NZ GDP. The signal I care about sits in the pattern across all six.

    Sometimes back I tried to automate this myself in Python. I struggled, honestly. Part of it was the programming; the bigger part was discovering how many variables I hadn’t accounted for: which API carries which series, how each source dates its observations, what happens when a feed goes quiet. I gave up, and the spreadsheet won by default. Tedious, but it worked, in the way that typing numbers into cells every quarter “works.”

    Then this year, with everyone talking about vibe coding, I decided the idea deserved a second attempt, this time with Claude Code doing the typing.

    Under two hours

    I wrote the request the way I would brief a contractor. The six indicators and their exact trigger thresholds. Two layers of logic: per-indicator status with a small history chart and a trend arrow, and above that a headline regime call (stagflation risk, inflation risk, deflation risk, watch, normal) driven by confirmed trends across three axes, where a confirmed trend means 3 consecutive quarters moving the same way. The hosting constraints: my WordPress site runs on Hostinger shared hosting, so the whole thing had to be one PHP script on a scheduled cron writing a data file, plus a static page reading it; no database, no server process, a folder I copy into public_html and it just works. I attached an image of how I wanted the dashboard laid out. And I defined done: the fetch runs end to end against live sources, the page renders against real data, the regime logic is proven by tests, and one data source gets deliberately broken to show the failure handling works before anyone tells me it’s finished.

    I ran the prompt, revised it once, and end to end, from idea to a working dashboard tested against live data, we spent more than an hour but less than two. And the constraint was me. The machine was rarely waiting on itself; it was waiting on me, because at every fork I was validating and verifying with my own eyeballs before letting it move on. Two hours still surprises me when I type it, given what the same idea cost me in Python.

    The two hours themselves are the part worth describing. Claude Code narrates as it works, a running commentary of what it’s checking and why, and some of it needs my answer, so I was reading the whole way through while keeping one eye on the token meter to see what all this thinking was costing me. And the commentary showed it thinking past the literal instruction. Before writing a line of code it verified every data source was actually reachable, because the whole architecture hinged on that. The Global Dairy Trade index has no public API and loads its numbers by JavaScript, so it read the site’s own app code, found the static JSON feed the charts call, and wired the scraper to that, built to shout if the feed’s shape ever changes rather than print a wrong number. When it found that the Stats NZ API needs a subscription key I hadn’t supplied, it declined to ship an untested adapter with guessed identifiers, saying plainly that claiming untested code works would be dishonest, and documented the upgrade path instead. It drew a distinction I hadn’t asked for, between a fetch that fails (mark the indicator Stale, keep the last good value, force the headline to Watch) and a source that succeeds but lags at origin (show the true data date and let me see the age). And at the end it broke the GDP feed on purpose, confirmed the Stale badge, the forced Watch and the error exit code all fired, then restored a clean run. The final test suite passed 23 out of 23.

    Where we got stuck

    One indicator refused to cooperate: NZ CPI. The US Federal Reserve’s FRED database carries nearly everything, including the NZ series via an OECD re-cut, and unemployment and GDP came through current. But FRED’s NZ CPI lagged 4 quarters behind, showing 2.5% for Q1 2025 when the real figure was 3.1% at Q1 2026. On a panel whose whole purpose is early warning about inflation, a year of lag on the inflation number is the one gap that matters; 3.1 sits a lot closer to my 4% trigger than 2.5 does.

    So we hunted together. I suggested the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s key indicators page, and we tested it in the browser side by side: the data is there, fresh, with history back to 1926. But the page sits behind F5 bot defence, so a PHP cron job gets served a JavaScript challenge instead of the numbers. Lovely data, unreachable by automation. Then I pointed at Stats NZ’s Infoshare, and it drove the site all the way to the export form before reporting back: the direct export needs a 42 KB form-state blob round-tripped on every call, an uploaded query file, and the full period list posted back, all behind Cloudflare. Technically scriptable, and it would snap the first time Stats NZ touched that page.

    The irony is not lost on me. I worked at Stats NZ. Their numbers are the authoritative ones, and theirs was the single source we could not automate cleanly, because the proper API wants a subscription key and, worse, wants you to already know which of their scattered data products you’re requesting. That discovery problem put me off registering a key at all; it’s now a question I’m taking to my network contacts, to find the right API path for CPI and maybe GDP.

    Where we landed is almost embarrassingly simple: a manual quarterly entry. CPI comes out 4 times a year, and each release I add one line to a config file, the same number I’ll be reading in the news anyway, while FRED’s older history fills in behind it for the chart. Mistype it and the card goes Stale, loudly. Thirty seconds a quarter, no key, no fragile scraper. For a quarterly series, that’s an honest fit, and it replaced a spreadsheet’s worth of typing with one line.

    What it actually felt like

    The closest comparison I have is pair programming: one person at the keyboard, the other watching, questioning, supplying context the typist doesn’t have. I sat with 2 browser windows open, one reading the commentary and watching the tokens tick, the other checking the same data sources myself, verifying what it told me against what I could see. When it hit a fork it stopped, named the fork, and gave a recommendation; I made the call and it kept moving.

    And the division of labour is what made 2 hours possible. The machine did the engineering I had already proven I couldn’t do alone; that Python attempt settled the question years ago. I did the parts it couldn’t: knowing that RBNZ and Infoshare existed as alternatives, judging that a manual entry is acceptable for a quarterly series, and above all knowing which six numbers matter and where the triggers sit, which came from the long stretch of doing the job by hand in Excel. The code took less than 2 hours. The specification took years of quarterly typing to earn. I suspect that ratio holds for most people trying this: the prompt worked on the first serious pass because I could define done precisely, and I could define done precisely because I had been the system I was replacing.

    This is what I did; consider what applies to your situation. I briefed it like a contractor, with constraints and done-criteria. I attached a picture of the outcome. I stayed in the room the whole time, reading the commentary, because the questions it asked were exactly the ones worth answering well. And I checked its claims independently while it worked, the same courtesy I’d extend to any capable colleague I’d only just met.

    The first real run of the finished dashboard came back Watch: dairy prices falling into rising US inflation, the dollar leaning on 0.58, nothing red on its own. Which is precisely the framing line I asked to be kept visible on the page: “None of these are red individually. Collectively, they paint a picture worth watching.”

    The dashboard is now live beside Strategic Kata. The cron runs on the 1st and 15th of each month, timed to the Global Dairy Trade auctions, the fastest-moving of the six feeds; the quarterly series refresh as their releases land, and the one CPI line each quarter is the whole of my remaining manual labour.

    The spreadsheet is retired. I guess that makes two of us.

  • What AI Exposes – Part 6 of 6

    AI is an extension of me in a machine.

    I was three iterations deep into a comic strip, watching Gemini put a collar on a character who’d never had a collar in any version, when I realised I was looking at the same problem I’d spent five articles describing in organisations with thousands of people. Style drift. Definition of done gone soft. The same dysfunction, just compressed down to one person, one laptop, one Friday afternoon.

    The difference was what happened next. I didn’t need a steering committee. I didn’t need to wait for a financial threshold to clear or a board paper to go in three weeks ahead of a meeting. I just changed the prompt and tried again.

    That’s the thing about working at the scale of one. There’s nobody between me and the outcome. No middle layer, no Chinese whispers carrying my intent through three other people before it reaches the work. If the comic strip doesn’t look right, that’s mine to fix, immediately, and there’s a kind of clarity in that, a clean line from decision to consequence that almost never existed in any of the organisations I spent thirty years inside. The same problem that took Stats NZ years to half-resolve, Scrum or Kanban, which method actually fits the work, I can resolve for myself in an afternoon, because I’m the only one who has to agree with the answer.

    It can be a lonely way to work, though, and I won’t pretend otherwise. So I’ve built something to sit in that gap. I’ve put an About Me file into Claude, my taste, my voice, the way I actually think, so that what comes back has a chance of sounding like me rather than like the four thousandth LinkedIn post on the same subject. I use other platforms differently, for research, for testing an idea from another angle, for seeing whether a thought holds up when something with a different bias pushes back on it. It’s a handful of different counsel rather than one tool, each one good at a different part of the job, closer to how I used to work inside an organisation than people might expect. I just don’t need an org chart to do it anymore.

    The voice-to-text side of this has surprised me more than anything else.

    For most of my life, I wrote the way I’d been taught to, type it, read it back, correct it, type some more. Mind maps. Handwritten notes. Bullet points I’d later try to expand into sentences. It worked, in the sense that things got written, but it never quite captured how I actually think, because how I actually think doesn’t arrive in tidy bullet points. It arrives the way I talk, in long connected runs, one idea pulling the next one behind it.

    I’d tried voice-to-text before, years ago, and it never worked for someone like me. English is my third language, after Cantonese and Bahasa Malaysia, and I don’t sound British or American, and the older speech recognition tools simply couldn’t hear me properly. Wrong words, wrong spelling, wrong context, dictation that fought my accent instead of capturing it. I gave up on it more than once.

    Wispr Flow is the first one that actually heard me. It captures the nuance, the pronunciation, the pace, and somewhere in using it I came across Zinsser’s Writing to Learn, which gave me the missing piece, the idea that thinking happens in the act of saying something out loud, not after it, and that stopping to fix a sentence halfway through is stopping the thought itself. Once I let that go, once I let myself talk fast when the idea was exciting and trust that it would be captured properly, the writing changed. All five articles before this one came out of that process, voice first, structure after. I don’t think I’d have written any of them the way I did, ten years ago, with the tools that existed then.

    So when people ask me what I actually think AI is, after trying most of the major platforms over the past couple of years, ChatGPT, Perplexity, Gemini, Claude, Deepseek, Manus, Grok, after the courses, the prompt engineering, the experiments that went nowhere, here’s the honest answer.

    It’s still a bicycle. That part hasn’t changed since I first wrote it. You learn the rules of the road, the etiquette, what it’s good for and what it isn’t, and once you know how to ride it, it gets you from one place to another faster than walking, without doing the walking for you. I’m not dependent on it. I’m faster because of it.

    What’s changed is what I think the bicycle is actually carrying.

    It feels less like a personal assistant now and more like an extension of my own thinking, put into a machine that can hold a version of my taste, my voice, my judgement, and reflect it back to me in different forms, depending on what I need that day. Gemini draws in something close to my comic style. Claude drafts in something close to my voice. The research tools dig into a topic the way I would, if I had the hours to do it myself. Each one is carrying a piece of how I think, and I’m the one deciding what to do with what comes back. None of them is me.

    There’s a newer part to this that wasn’t here when I started the series. Some of the counsel runs on its own now, on a schedule I set once and mostly leave alone. Every week a report on my finances arrives without me asking for it, the numbers pulled together, the movements flagged, the few things I’d actually want to look at sitting near the top. Every week the same happens for the Pipitea Mews Body Corporate Committee I sit on, the updates gathered and drafted so I meet the BC Manager already knowing what has changed, instead of finding out halfway through the meeting like everyone else. I read them, I decide what matters, I act or I don’t. But the fetching and the first draft were done before I sat down, and that used to be somebody’s whole job.

    That’s the part I didn’t quite see coming. At the scale of one, I’d assumed the recurring work, the weekly rhythm a team used to carry, would either land back on me or simply not get done. It turns out a good deal of it can be handed over and checked rather than done from scratch, which is closer to working with a capable team than anything I expected to find on my own. The machine doesn’t decide what the numbers mean. It doesn’t sit in the committee. It does the gathering and the first pass, the way a junior analyst would, and it leaves the judgement where it has to stay, with me.

    That’s the part the bicycle metaphor still gets right, even now. The bicycle doesn’t choose the destination. I do. It just makes the distance shorter, and it means the journey doesn’t have to be lonely the way I once worried it might be in retirement, no office, no team, no water cooler. I find I’m more connected now than I was for a lot of my working life, because I can take an idea, set it down, walk away from it, come back later with something new to add, and the thinking is still there waiting, sharper than it would have been if I’d had to hold the whole thing in my head the entire time.

    Looking back across everything in this series, the pattern holds at every scale I looked at it. AI won’t remove ANZ’s production bottleneck. It won’t dissolve Stats NZ’s immunity system or smooth over the gap between a steering committee report and what was actually happening on the ground. It won’t move Te Pūkenga’s funding any faster, and it can’t read a room the way thirty years of watching people abandon ship taught me to. None of that changed because the scale dropped from an organisation of thousands down to one retired man and his laptop. What changed is that at this scale, I’m the only constraint left to find, and most days, I’m also the one who gets to fix it.

    I think that’s the real difference age and experience buy you. Not certainty, I don’t have much more of that than I did at thirty. But I’ve seen enough versions of the same mistake, in enough organisations, that I recognise it faster now, in myself, in a prompt that isn’t working, in a strip that needs a sixth pass before the collar disappears. AI hasn’t replaced that. If anything, it’s given me more places to practise it.

    My daughter grew up mostly hearing titles. Project Manager. CIO. Senior Manager. Platform Engineering Director, toward the end, a title I’m not sure she ever fully understood, and honestly, neither did most people I worked with. None of those titles ever told her what the work actually was.

    What I’d want her to know, more than any of it, is that the work was always about the people in the room, not the tool on the desk. That was true with Scrum. It was true with cloud migrations and steering committees and budgets stuck above someone’s financial delegation. It’s still true now, with AI sitting on my desk instead of a project plan. The tool changes what’s possible. It has never once changed what actually matters, which is whether you can read the people around you honestly, and whether you treat them well while you do it.

    This website was never meant to be a memoir. I’d like her to read it one day, not for the organisations or the job titles, but to see how her father learned to work with what he was given, with enough discipline to keep going and enough humility to know when to change course. If she takes one thing from it, I hope it’s this: learn from the people who went before you, take their mistakes as your own lessons, and you’ll fumble less than I did.

    AI makes that easier now than it’s ever been. It gives you a faster bicycle to go find out what you actually believe. It doesn’t do the believing for you.

    I’m still riding mine.

  • Knowledge Is Cheap Now

    For 4 years those boxes sat in the closet, the filing cabinets, the shelf in the corner, and I never once opened them. I moved to Hamilton in 2022 and the paper came with me, taped up, labelled, promising to be useful one day. Now I’m moving house again in 3 weeks, so I finally cut the tape. Most of what I found was printouts. Articles from Harvard Business Review, research notes from Gartner and Forrester, journal pieces, newsletters, things I printed off before AI, before the internet was much use, and a fair bit of it from before the internet at all. I printed them because that’s what you did. You couldn’t read a Gartner report on your phone on the train back then, so you printed it, folded it into your bag, and read it on the commute, or in a meeting where you looked busy and were, occasionally, actually learning something.

    People talk about hoarding as retail therapy, and I understand the pull of it: buying things with your own hard-earned money is a small hit of happiness, and there’s nothing wrong with that. My hoarding was a different animal. Mine was knowledge. Over 30-odd years across Southern Bank, ABN AMRO, the National Bank/ANZ, Inland Revenue, Stats NZ, I gathered paper the way other people gather shoes, because in my line of work the paper was the point. It was the raw material of doing the job well. So I kept it, and kept it, and moved it from house to house, and told myself I’d use it again one day.

    The maybe bucket is a trap

    So I did what you’re supposed to do. Three buckets. Keep, throw, and maybe. The keep pile is easy and the throw pile is easy. The maybe pile is where good decluttering quietly goes to die.

    I read something years ago about the maybe bucket that stuck with me, and it turns out to be true every single time. The maybe bucket is not a decision. It’s a holding pen for your own uncertainty. You put a thing in there because you can’t decide, and when you come back to look at it again, you are exactly as undecided as you were the first time, so it lives forever. Never filter the maybe bucket. The moment you start sorting it, picking through it a second time, you’ve handed your uncertainty a way to keep everything.

    My rule is blunter than the books make it sound. Hell yes, I keep it. Hell no, it’s gone. And maybe is hell no, because the hesitation is the answer. If I have to think about it, I already know. Then I run one test on the whole lot: would I miss this a month from now, 2 months from now? These boxes have been sealed in a closet for 4 years and I haven’t missed a single page. So the answer writes itself. Would I use it again? Probably not. Would I ever find it again if I wanted it, buried in a box, filed under a system I set up a decade ago and have long forgotten? No. You never find the thing you archived by hand. And if I genuinely want the idea back, well, you’ve got AI now. You’ll remember you once read it, you’ll ask, and it will hand you a better version than the yellowing page you were clinging to.

    Knowledge got cheap

    Here’s the thing that landed on me somewhere in the middle of the second filing cabinet, kneeling on the floor with a bin bag. Knowledge is cheap now.

    When I started out at 19, people paid for what you knew. You acquired it, you studied it, you carried it around, and that accumulation was your edge. It was why you got hired, why you got promoted, why someone senior asked for your read on a problem. I made CIO at ABN AMRO in my early thirties, and a good chunk of what got me there was simply that I’d done the reading nobody else had bothered to do. The paper in my bag was professional capital. It had a price, and I’d paid it, in commutes and late nights and subscription fees.

    Now anyone can Google it. Better than that, they can ask an AI to do the deep dive and explain it back at whatever level suits them, like they’re 5 years old, or like they’re a corporate executive, or like they’re a CIO who needs it in the language of a board paper. The thing that took me years to gather, a curious teenager can now summon in a sentence, in better shape than I ever kept it. That paper mountain in my closet, the one that was capital once, is recycling now. I’m not being dramatic about it. I’m literally putting it in the recycling.

    What I couldn’t throw out

    And yet I kept some of it. Not much, but some.

    I kept my own notes. The newsletters I wrote, the journals of my own thinking, the observations I jotted down over the years that were never online and never will be. That’s not knowledge I can Google, because nobody has published it, including me. It’s mine, and I keep it because it feeds what I write now on Strategic Kata. The rest, the borrowed knowledge, the reprints of other people’s cleverness, I let go, because the internet holds a better copy than my cabinet ever did.

    My wife ran the same test faster than I did. She had the course materials from her Cafe Service Level 2 Certification and her Certificate in Dental Assisting from the New Zealand Dental Association. I asked if she wanted to keep them. She said, give me some time. Less than an hour later she came back and said, chuck it out, I’m not working anymore, and the information’s probably dated by now anyway. Then she said the thing that is the whole point of this piece, without meaning to say anything profound at all: the rest is in my head. The course materials went in the no bucket. The certificates she kept. The knowledge stayed exactly where it had always lived.

    The information was the cheap part all along. What held its value was what we did with it, and what stayed in our heads after the paper was filed and forgotten. AI didn’t take that from anyone. It just made it obvious, by making the information itself free. The stuff that’s still worth something is the stuff that was never really on the page: the judgment, the pattern recognition, the scar tissue from having been in the room when it went wrong.

    Books are where my rule breaks, and I’ll admit it plainly. I can’t part with physical books. I have a hardcover of Management Control Systems, 9th edition, Anthony and Govindarajan, from my MBA days. I read it front to back and went back to it for years. The information in it is dated now too, of course it is. That’s not why I keep it. I keep it for the earmarks, the notes crammed in the margins, the sticky tabs, the yellowing pages, the whole record of me arguing with the author across the page. Master that book and you know what to look at and what to consider, and the rest is delegation. What I value there isn’t the content. It’s the layer of my own thinking sitting on top of it, and you can’t print that off Gartner.

    One room at a time

    Then there’s the rest of it. The extra furniture nobody sits on, the kitchen appliances we bought and used twice and left to gather dust. There’s a quiet lesson in an appliance you haven’t touched in a year. I’m a minimalist by nature, and my wife is learning to be one, though it’s taken her time and a few house moves to get there.

    We’ve got 3 weeks, so we’re doing one room at a time. AI handled the checklist and the paperwork, which used to eat a weekend on its own. Thinking about it, this move is the least stressful we’ve had, and the reason is simple: we’re both home full time now. The hard moves were the ones where we both worked, packing at midnight, arguing about who booked the truck. This time we can sit on the floor with a box of old crockery and utensils and stuff we’d forgotten we owned, and talk, and laugh about where it came from. Sentimental value? Plenty. Worth keeping? Not really. So it’s sold, or given to someone who’ll use it, or dropped at the Salvation Army or the op shop.

    The lawn mower and the trimmer are the last things to go, and they can’t go yet. I’ve still got to mow and trim the lawn one last time before I hand the keys back to the property manager, so those two stay until the tenancy exit is done. Small mercy on the other end: the place we’re moving to has no lawn to mow at all.

    We upsized once. We downsized once. Now we downsize again. Life is good.

  • What AI Exposes – Part 5 of 6

    AI can read what’s written down. It can’t read the room.

    I was naive the first time I got close to real power.

    I was CIO for the Malaysian operation at ABN AMRO, and it was the first time I’d been anywhere near the corridors where decisions actually got made. Up to that point, I’d assumed that what happened in meetings was mostly what was happening. I learned quickly that wasn’t true. There were deals behind the scenes, agreements reached in rooms I wasn’t in, what I’d call horse trading, the kind of give and take between senior people that never appears in any paper, any minutes, any business case.

    I didn’t have anyone showing me the ropes before that. No mentor pulling me aside to explain how things actually worked, the way some people get. Most of what I learned, I learned by getting it wrong first, reading senior leadership moves badly, more than once, because I’d assumed, the way management textbooks teach you to assume, that everyone in the room was working toward the organisation’s stated goals and that personal interest sat somewhere well below that. I went looking for better teachers wherever I could find them, suppliers, older employees who’d seen more cycles than I had, and through my MBA, where I sought out senior executives at other listed companies who could tell me what the textbooks left out. Some of them taught strategy and financial management at business school themselves. What they gave me wasn’t in the assigned reading. Looking back, those were my most formative years, the MBA and ABN AMRO running at the same time, each one teaching me something the other couldn’t.

    What you see in the room may not be what it actually means. And if you raise something, even something real, something you’ve genuinely identified as a problem, it can go nowhere. Not because anyone disagrees with you. Often nobody disagrees with you at all. You get lip service, you’re told it’s a good point, worth considering, and then you’re kept busy, genuinely busy, with work that feels important, until at some point you’re told to stop. No budget. Leadership doesn’t approve it. Other priorities. Whatever the reason given, it’s rarely the real one.

    I used to think that was wasted effort. I don’t think that anymore. I think it’s closer to camouflage. Keeping you occupied with something real enough to feel meaningful means you’re the one focused elsewhere, not the one asking questions, not the one creating friction around whatever the actual direction of travel is. You become part of the cover, without ever being told that’s the role you’re playing.

    Here’s what that looked like in practice. The Managing Director issued a directive, get rid of personal colour printers across the operation, replace them with three leased colour copiers instead. Sound economics, better cost control, easier to monitor consumption. I followed it. Then the Asian Financial Crisis hit, and in the middle of it, Treasury delivered the bank’s entire year’s profit target in a single week. The Head of Treasury came to me asking for a colour printer of his own. I declined. We had a directive from the MD, and as far as I was concerned, that was the end of the conversation.

    I hadn’t read the room at all. I was reprimanded for it, called penny wise and pound foolish, for refusing to sign off something so small against the scale of what Treasury had just delivered for the bank. The policy was real. The directive was real. None of that mattered once a senior leader had just made the year for the entire Malaysian operation. That’s when I understood what equity, fairness, and meritocracy actually meant inside an organisation, and what they didn’t. The dots I needed to connect weren’t in the policy document. They were in who had just earned the standing to ignore it.

    That was ABN AMRO. The lessons came one humiliation at a time, and I was new enough to all of it that I didn’t yet see the whole pattern underneath.

    Years later, at Te Pūkenga, I understood it completely.

    We had real work underway, a digital transformation to bring 25 separate polytechnic and vocational education platforms down to one, a programme that would have cut close to a third of the operating cost across the network. The case for it was strong. And it kept hitting roadblocks, one after another, each with its own reason, no funding yet, no approval yet, other priorities ahead of it, despite earlier agreement that it would proceed.

    By that point I’d learned to read the room differently. Human nature doesn’t change much, whatever era you’re in. When the people closest to the centre, the ones who hear things in rooms you’re not in, start quietly updating their CVs, start having conversations that sound like they’re already planning their next move, that tells you something the org chart never will. It’s a filter of a filter. They’re reacting to information you don’t have access to, and their behaviour is the signal.

    At Te Pūkenga, a change in direction was coming for the organisation, well before it was formally announced. I’m not going to comment on whether that decision was right or wrong, that’s well outside anything I have a view worth sharing on, and frankly it was beyond anyone at my level to influence either way. What I will say is that the roadblocks we kept hitting, the funding that never quite arrived, the approvals that kept slipping, made a different kind of sense once you understood that the organisation’s future was already an open question at a level none of us could see directly. The work wasn’t being blocked because it was a bad idea. It was being held in place because committing real money to a transformation that would take years to deliver didn’t fit with a future that might not include the organisation in its current form.

    Nobody told us that. Nobody could have, probably, even if they’d wanted to. We worked it out by watching what the people around us did, not what they said.

    I think this is what sense-making actually is. Not analysis, not data, not even particularly intelligence in the way that word usually gets used. It’s connecting what you observe, what’s said directly, what’s implied, how people’s behaviour shifts, against everything you already know about how organisations and the people running them tend to behave, until a shape emerges that nobody has confirmed but that turns out, later, to be correct.

    Not every signal points toward self-interest, though. I learned that at ANZ too, watching a different kind of decision get made.

    Graham Hodges joined ANZ New Zealand as CEO in November 2005. The decision to merge the ANZ and National Bank mainframes and systems had already been sitting in analysis since 2003, two rounds of review, a mountain of documentation, no call made. During his tenure, he made it, the kind of decision a more cautious leader might have let sit for another review cycle. Then he did something nobody had budgeted for. He proposed ANZ lead the development of a Snapper card for public transport payment in New Zealand, something like London’s Oyster card, or the Octopus card he’d have seen used in Hong Kong. Nothing in the existing programme of work accounted for it. He asked for budget to be pulled from other initiatives to fund it. I was in the room at a leaders’ update when he told the whole leadership team why, that New Zealand needed it, and that ANZ’s brand belonged at the front of building it, not because any individual business unit had asked for it. Snapper went live in July 2008.

    Nobody saw that coming. Every CEO ANZ HQ had sent out before him had played it safe. This read differently to me, closer to conviction than caution, the kind of bet a leader makes when belief in an idea outweighs the safety of staying inside existing budget lines. The bet didn’t cost him either. He left ANZ New Zealand in May 2009, promoted to Deputy CEO of the ANZ Group. Reading the difference between someone protecting themselves and someone genuinely backing an idea they believe in is its own kind of sense-making, rarer than the other kind, and worth getting right, because mistaking one for the other costs you something different each time.

    And here’s where I think AI sits in all of this, and where it doesn’t.

    AI is extraordinarily good at the documented layer of an organisation. The papers, the reports, the meeting minutes, the business cases, the dashboards. All of that, AI can read, summarise, generate, analyse, faster than any of us could. Parts 3 and 4 in this series were both, in a sense, about that documented layer, the steering committee pack, the business case waiting for approval above a financial threshold. AI makes all of that faster and more polished.

    But the documented layer was never where the real decision lived. The real decision lived in belief and fear, sometimes tangled together the way they were at ABN AMRO, sometimes belief running clean on its own, the way it did with Hodges and his Snapper card. Either way, it sat with a small number of people at the apex of an organisation, employees too, whatever the org chart said about their seniority, their real stake nothing more than their position, their income, their title. And almost none of that gets written down. It can’t, often, because writing it down would make it real in a way that creates its own problems. So it travels through behaviour instead. Through who goes quiet. Through which topics never quite get scheduled. Through the slight change in tone in a room that, on paper, hasn’t changed at all.

    AI has no access to that layer. It was never going to. The information doesn’t exist anywhere AI can read it, because it was never put anywhere in the first place, deliberately.

    So here’s what I think happens as AI takes over more and more of the documented layer. The documented layer gets faster, cleaner, more abundant, and it becomes less and less where anything is actually decided, because it never really was. What’s left, the undocumented layer, the belief and fear sitting with a handful of people, doesn’t shrink. It becomes more clearly the only layer that ever mattered, just harder to see precisely because everything around it now looks so comprehensive and so well-documented.

    AI is a product, like every other product that’s come through an organisation before it. New tools change what gets produced and how fast. They don’t change who holds the real decision, or what that decision actually runs on. That’s been true of every wave of technology I’ve worked through, and I don’t see why this one would be different.

    What’s changed for me, I think, is that I stopped expecting the documented layer to tell me anything useful about where things were heading, a long time ago. I learned to watch the room instead.

    It’s served me well. Whether it’s something AI can ever do, I genuinely don’t know. I suspect not.